Friday 15 April 2016

Pro12 final standings predictions

Leinster

     Leinster have their fate firmly in their own hands, but a few twists and turns should be expected in their bid to top the regular season table. Despite having perhaps the easiest run in of any of the sides still in the hunt for a home play-off semi-final. Like Connacht and Glasgow Leo Cullen's side face an Italian side in their final three fixtures, but before then they play an Edinburgh side chasing a Champions Cup spot and fifth placed Ulster, who look like a strong contender for the final play-off spot. Perplexingly Cullen has decided to rest the experienced duo of Sexton and Heaslip which could be a costly decision against an Edinburgh side running hot and cold. Nevertheless home advantage should see Leinster take the win this weekend and in Round 22 against Treviso. However, Round 21's trip to Kingspan could be another story altogether. 

Verdict: 73 Points - Second Place

Connacht

     Undoubtedly the story of the season, the Galway side have lead the competition ever since Munster's early season form evaporated into thin air. Two losses in a row following their dramatic 7-6 win over Leinster leaves things a big shaky for Pat Lam's men. Not the best preparation before arguably facing the toughest run in of the sides left fighting for the top 2. They host Munster this weekend in a must win clash for both sides before travelling to Treviso. They host Glasgow in the final round in the match that will ultimately decide who finishes where in the top 3. Connacht should see off Munster this weekend and take the full points on offer against Treviso in two weeks time but it is hard to see home advantage help them see off Glasgow too on the final weekend. Third place will see them likely face provincial rivals Leinster away. At this moment in time no one would bet against Connacht taking the spoils from that potential clash in Dublin.

Verdict: 73 Points - Third Place 

Glasgow

     Written off by many this season following several dips in form Glasgow have re-emerged as favourites to retain their league title. Their moonlighting as the Scottish national team has caught up with them both during and after the Rugby World Cup and 6 Nations. However, Townsend's revolution looks set to continue despite a tough run in for the reigning champions, they face the Scarlets and Connacht away as well as Zebre at home. While they currently lay two points adrift of both Leinster and Connacht and play away from home in their most crucial remaining games it is difficult to not see them take three wins from three and top the table.

Verdict: 74 Points - First place

Scarlets

     The Scarlets are unquestionably the leagues sneakily consistent side having finished in the top 6 every year since the entry of the Italian sides into the competition. They face a series of difficult fixtures to retain fourth spot, first up is Glasgow at home this weekend where a win would take them into third position. They then face the high-flying Dragons, who represent the only Pro12 side left in European competition, before facing Munster at Thomond Park in a potential fourth-placed play-off. 
Fourth place is theirs to lose and the Welsh side might just have to settle for being the sole Welsh team in next seasons Champions Cup if Ulster have anything to say about it.(Unless the Dragons can win the Challenge Cup)

Verdict: 64 Points - Fifth Place

Ulster

     Ulster have their eyes firmly planted on knocking the Scarlets out of fourth place. This weekends clashes will prove crucial in the battle for the final play-off spot as Ulster take on Zebre with five points for Kiss's side almost a foregone conclusion. The timely return of star winger Tommy Bowe along with a confident win against Zebre will raise confidence levels in time for a final push. Round 21 sees Ulster host Leinster, the result mattering a huge amount to both sides. Cullen's tactic of resting Sexton and Heaslip ahead of the interprovincial clash highlights Leinster's focus, but home advantage should see Ulster take home the spoils, as they did when Connacht visited them last month. The Ospreys will provide a formidable stumbling block for the Ulstermen in Round 22, but the prize of a play-off spot should see them win at the Liberty Stadium. 

Verdict: 68 Points - Fourth Place

Munster

     Munster's post-World Cup capitulation has left a lasting impression on their entire season with Foley's men struggling to generate any form since the beginning of the season. A difficult trip to the Sportsground this weekend is the first of three vital clashes for Munster, all of which they must win to keep Edinburgh firmly in the rear view mirror. Home advantage could be a key factor for Munster as they face Edinburgh at Irish Independent Park in Round 21 before a final weekend fixture against the Scarlets at Thomond Park. Three out of three could see Munster squeeze into an unlikely play-off spot, but Connacht should prove too much for the Limerick side and leave them settling for a Champions Cup spot. 

Verdict: 62 Points - Sixth Place

Edinburgh

     Edinburgh's threat to finish in the top 6 and join fellow countrymen Glasgow in the Champions Cup next season looks set to run down to the wire. Their trip to Thomond Park will prove immensely crucial for both sides if Munster fail to beat Connacht this weekend, taking the place of the absent Champions Cup play-off for this season. The Scotsmen host Cardiff on the final weekend, a much more winnable fixture than Munster's clash with the Scarlets. A dogfight for sixth place looks set to emerge if neither Munster nor Edinburgh can pull a critical win out of the bag this weekend, the Scotsmen take on Leinster.

Verdict: 57 Points - Seventh Place

Cardiff

     Like Edinburgh, Cardiff remain an outside threat for the last Champions Cup spot. They face the Dragons this weekend who will almost certainly be looking ahead to their Challenge Cup semi-final next weekend before taking on the Ospreys and Edinburgh. They currently rest five points behind Munster, a margin which should prove too much for the Blues to take sixth place.

Verdict: 53 Points - Eighth Place

Ospreys

     The Ospreys have endured a torrid season by their standards and the final few weekends cannot make up for it. A bonus point win over Treviso this weekend is expected before they face Cardiff in a battle for pride and eighth place. The Welsh side then have the chance to aid neighbours the Scarlets when they face Ulster in Round 22. The Ospreys cannot save their own season but they can have a big impact on the race for fourth and sixth in the coming weeks.

Verdict: 53 points - Ninth Place

Dragons

     Like their fellow regions, with the exception of the Scarlets, the Dragons have nothing to play for the the Pro12 except pride. Their run in sees them take on Cardiff, the Scarlets and Zebre while simultaneously battling for Champions Cup qualification through winning the Challenge Cup. The regions focus will be on Europe with no chance of them rising or falling in the table. Despite recent form the Dragons should not pose a serious challenge to the Scarlets.

Verdict: 32 Points - Tenth Place

Zebre

     This year again sees Zebre in a close battle with fellow Italians Treviso for the coveted eleventh spot and the final Pro12 Champions Cup spot by virtue of nationality inclusion rules. They face Ulster and Glasgow and look certain to take no points from either clash. Zebre will be focussed on defeating the Dragons on the final weekend of the regular season to ensure their place above Treviso.

Verdict: 20 Points - Eleventh Place

Treviso

     Treviso face a much harder run in with the prospects of the Ospreys, Connacht and Leinster on the horizon. A win or a losing bonus point in any of their three remaining fixtures with the Pro12 'wooden spoon' looking set to swap hands from one Italian side to the other this season.

Verdict: 15 Points - Twelfth Place






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