The IRFU are now in pole position to host the 2023 Rugby World Cup following an announcement from the South African Sports minister today. Controversial figure, Fikile Mbalula has again intervened in the Springboks affairs, this time outlawing the side from hosting international tournaments for failing to meet ''..transformation targets''. The decision will not be re-visited until October of this year meaning that the SARU will not be able to table an official bid by the June cut-off point. South Africa's Cricket, Netball and Athletics teams have also been affected by the same ruling.
The decision comes in light of government policies in South Africa aimed at increasing the numbers of coloured players and athletes in line with employment regulations across other professions. The 'transformation' targets that the SARU have failed to meet has been a running issue in the South African media. Prior to last year's Rugby World Cup in England Mbalula attempted to seize the passports of the South African rugby team and management in a bid to force the side to abide by race quotas. Under Heyneke Meyer the Springboks saw the fewest number of coloured players receive caps as compared to any other SARU coach in the professional era.
The threat to prevent the Springboks from competing at last year's showpiece proved to be empty but this ban could be significantly more effective. A global event such as the World Cup demands government partnership with the respective union to ensure, among many things, financial security. South Africa simply cannot host the tournament without their governments support. Tipped by many to gain the eventual rights to host the 2023 tournament, the SARU are clearly being strong-armed by their government into action.
If the issue is not resolved by June then it will leave Ireland competing with Italy and Argentina to host the 2023 World Cup.
Monday 25 April 2016
Sunday 17 April 2016
Top sides continue to dominate as hunt for final Champions Cup spots heats up
Round 20 of the Pro12 Rugby saw all results go as was widely expected leaving the competition poised for an exciting final few rounds. At the top of the table Leinster, Connacht and Glasgow all recorded impressive bonus point victories. These results see the race for a home semi-final whittle down to just these three teams with fourth placed Ulster six points adrift of Glasgow in third. Leinster's win sees them retain first place while remaining on equal match points with Connacht. Connacht face the Warriors in the final round of the competition in what will more than likely be a play-off for a home play-off semi-final.
The three top sides wins had a sizeable impact on the race for the final play-off spot and the remaining Champions Cup qualifying spots with a lot of movement taking place from 4th to 7th in the league table. Glasgow earned an important win over the Scarlets in Wales, the Warriors let loose to completely dominate proceedings at Parc y Scarlets and leaving Pivac's side in fifth place two points shy of Ulster. Tommy Bowe scored a brace in his return to competitive action against Zebre as Ulster racked up an impressive 47-17 win over Zebre. The win, combined with the Scarlets hefty defeat to Glasgow, sees Les Kiss' mean move into a commanding lead over the Welsh region and into fourth position.
Edinburgh managed to earn a vital losing bonus point at the RDS despite a strong bonus point win from Leinster. The losing bonus point sees Edinburgh move into 6th place at Munster's expense. Anthony Foley's side fell victim to the enduring class of Connacht at the Sportsgrounds, failing to pick up any points as Connacht earned a bonus point win. Munster's drop to 7th place comes just before they face their usurpers, Edinburgh, at Irish Independent Park in Round 21. Both sides are firmly in the hunt for sixth place, the winner in Cork will prove crucial in deciding who finishes the season there.
Edinburgh have their fate completely in their own hands as they face both their rivals for sixth place in their remaining fixtures. After facing Munster the Scotsmen will host Cardiff in a game which could be a play-off for a Champions Cup spot if both sides can get a win in Round 21. The Blues defeated the Dragons at the Arms Park this weekend, but will face a tough clash with the Ospreys before their potentially crucial clash against Edinburgh. The Ospreys took the full points on offer against Treviso to give themselves a chance of Champions Cup rugby next season, however they need many results to go their way if they are to have any chance of qualifying.
Round 20 Full Results:
Leinster 30 - 23 Edinburgh
Ospreys 47 - 10 Treviso
Scarlets 10 - 46 Glasgow
Zebre 17 - 47 Ulster
Connacht 35 - 14 Munster
Cardiff 28 - 8 Dragons
Round 21 Fixtures:
Treviso v Connacht
Glasgow v Zebre
Munster v Edinburgh
Cardiff v Ospreys
Ulster v Leinster
Dragons v Scarlets
Friday 15 April 2016
Pro12 final standings predictions
Leinster
Leinster have their fate firmly in their own hands, but a few twists and turns should be expected in their bid to top the regular season table. Despite having perhaps the easiest run in of any of the sides still in the hunt for a home play-off semi-final. Like Connacht and Glasgow Leo Cullen's side face an Italian side in their final three fixtures, but before then they play an Edinburgh side chasing a Champions Cup spot and fifth placed Ulster, who look like a strong contender for the final play-off spot. Perplexingly Cullen has decided to rest the experienced duo of Sexton and Heaslip which could be a costly decision against an Edinburgh side running hot and cold. Nevertheless home advantage should see Leinster take the win this weekend and in Round 22 against Treviso. However, Round 21's trip to Kingspan could be another story altogether.
Verdict: 73 Points - Second Place
Connacht
Undoubtedly the story of the season, the Galway side have lead the competition ever since Munster's early season form evaporated into thin air. Two losses in a row following their dramatic 7-6 win over Leinster leaves things a big shaky for Pat Lam's men. Not the best preparation before arguably facing the toughest run in of the sides left fighting for the top 2. They host Munster this weekend in a must win clash for both sides before travelling to Treviso. They host Glasgow in the final round in the match that will ultimately decide who finishes where in the top 3. Connacht should see off Munster this weekend and take the full points on offer against Treviso in two weeks time but it is hard to see home advantage help them see off Glasgow too on the final weekend. Third place will see them likely face provincial rivals Leinster away. At this moment in time no one would bet against Connacht taking the spoils from that potential clash in Dublin.
Verdict: 73 Points - Third Place
Glasgow
Written off by many this season following several dips in form Glasgow have re-emerged as favourites to retain their league title. Their moonlighting as the Scottish national team has caught up with them both during and after the Rugby World Cup and 6 Nations. However, Townsend's revolution looks set to continue despite a tough run in for the reigning champions, they face the Scarlets and Connacht away as well as Zebre at home. While they currently lay two points adrift of both Leinster and Connacht and play away from home in their most crucial remaining games it is difficult to not see them take three wins from three and top the table.
Verdict: 74 Points - First place
Scarlets
The Scarlets are unquestionably the leagues sneakily consistent side having finished in the top 6 every year since the entry of the Italian sides into the competition. They face a series of difficult fixtures to retain fourth spot, first up is Glasgow at home this weekend where a win would take them into third position. They then face the high-flying Dragons, who represent the only Pro12 side left in European competition, before facing Munster at Thomond Park in a potential fourth-placed play-off.
Fourth place is theirs to lose and the Welsh side might just have to settle for being the sole Welsh team in next seasons Champions Cup if Ulster have anything to say about it.(Unless the Dragons can win the Challenge Cup)
Verdict: 64 Points - Fifth Place
Ulster
Ulster have their eyes firmly planted on knocking the Scarlets out of fourth place. This weekends clashes will prove crucial in the battle for the final play-off spot as Ulster take on Zebre with five points for Kiss's side almost a foregone conclusion. The timely return of star winger Tommy Bowe along with a confident win against Zebre will raise confidence levels in time for a final push. Round 21 sees Ulster host Leinster, the result mattering a huge amount to both sides. Cullen's tactic of resting Sexton and Heaslip ahead of the interprovincial clash highlights Leinster's focus, but home advantage should see Ulster take home the spoils, as they did when Connacht visited them last month. The Ospreys will provide a formidable stumbling block for the Ulstermen in Round 22, but the prize of a play-off spot should see them win at the Liberty Stadium.
Verdict: 68 Points - Fourth Place
Munster
Munster's post-World Cup capitulation has left a lasting impression on their entire season with Foley's men struggling to generate any form since the beginning of the season. A difficult trip to the Sportsground this weekend is the first of three vital clashes for Munster, all of which they must win to keep Edinburgh firmly in the rear view mirror. Home advantage could be a key factor for Munster as they face Edinburgh at Irish Independent Park in Round 21 before a final weekend fixture against the Scarlets at Thomond Park. Three out of three could see Munster squeeze into an unlikely play-off spot, but Connacht should prove too much for the Limerick side and leave them settling for a Champions Cup spot.
Verdict: 62 Points - Sixth Place
Edinburgh
Edinburgh's threat to finish in the top 6 and join fellow countrymen Glasgow in the Champions Cup next season looks set to run down to the wire. Their trip to Thomond Park will prove immensely crucial for both sides if Munster fail to beat Connacht this weekend, taking the place of the absent Champions Cup play-off for this season. The Scotsmen host Cardiff on the final weekend, a much more winnable fixture than Munster's clash with the Scarlets. A dogfight for sixth place looks set to emerge if neither Munster nor Edinburgh can pull a critical win out of the bag this weekend, the Scotsmen take on Leinster.
Verdict: 57 Points - Seventh Place
Cardiff
Like Edinburgh, Cardiff remain an outside threat for the last Champions Cup spot. They face the Dragons this weekend who will almost certainly be looking ahead to their Challenge Cup semi-final next weekend before taking on the Ospreys and Edinburgh. They currently rest five points behind Munster, a margin which should prove too much for the Blues to take sixth place.
Verdict: 53 Points - Eighth Place
Ospreys
The Ospreys have endured a torrid season by their standards and the final few weekends cannot make up for it. A bonus point win over Treviso this weekend is expected before they face Cardiff in a battle for pride and eighth place. The Welsh side then have the chance to aid neighbours the Scarlets when they face Ulster in Round 22. The Ospreys cannot save their own season but they can have a big impact on the race for fourth and sixth in the coming weeks.
Verdict: 53 points - Ninth Place
Dragons
Like their fellow regions, with the exception of the Scarlets, the Dragons have nothing to play for the the Pro12 except pride. Their run in sees them take on Cardiff, the Scarlets and Zebre while simultaneously battling for Champions Cup qualification through winning the Challenge Cup. The regions focus will be on Europe with no chance of them rising or falling in the table. Despite recent form the Dragons should not pose a serious challenge to the Scarlets.
Verdict: 32 Points - Tenth Place
Zebre
This year again sees Zebre in a close battle with fellow Italians Treviso for the coveted eleventh spot and the final Pro12 Champions Cup spot by virtue of nationality inclusion rules. They face Ulster and Glasgow and look certain to take no points from either clash. Zebre will be focussed on defeating the Dragons on the final weekend of the regular season to ensure their place above Treviso.
Verdict: 20 Points - Eleventh Place
Treviso
Treviso face a much harder run in with the prospects of the Ospreys, Connacht and Leinster on the horizon. A win or a losing bonus point in any of their three remaining fixtures with the Pro12 'wooden spoon' looking set to swap hands from one Italian side to the other this season.
Verdict: 15 Points - Twelfth Place
Cardiff
Like Edinburgh, Cardiff remain an outside threat for the last Champions Cup spot. They face the Dragons this weekend who will almost certainly be looking ahead to their Challenge Cup semi-final next weekend before taking on the Ospreys and Edinburgh. They currently rest five points behind Munster, a margin which should prove too much for the Blues to take sixth place.
Verdict: 53 Points - Eighth Place
Ospreys
The Ospreys have endured a torrid season by their standards and the final few weekends cannot make up for it. A bonus point win over Treviso this weekend is expected before they face Cardiff in a battle for pride and eighth place. The Welsh side then have the chance to aid neighbours the Scarlets when they face Ulster in Round 22. The Ospreys cannot save their own season but they can have a big impact on the race for fourth and sixth in the coming weeks.
Verdict: 53 points - Ninth Place
Dragons
Like their fellow regions, with the exception of the Scarlets, the Dragons have nothing to play for the the Pro12 except pride. Their run in sees them take on Cardiff, the Scarlets and Zebre while simultaneously battling for Champions Cup qualification through winning the Challenge Cup. The regions focus will be on Europe with no chance of them rising or falling in the table. Despite recent form the Dragons should not pose a serious challenge to the Scarlets.
Verdict: 32 Points - Tenth Place
Zebre
This year again sees Zebre in a close battle with fellow Italians Treviso for the coveted eleventh spot and the final Pro12 Champions Cup spot by virtue of nationality inclusion rules. They face Ulster and Glasgow and look certain to take no points from either clash. Zebre will be focussed on defeating the Dragons on the final weekend of the regular season to ensure their place above Treviso.
Verdict: 20 Points - Eleventh Place
Treviso
Treviso face a much harder run in with the prospects of the Ospreys, Connacht and Leinster on the horizon. A win or a losing bonus point in any of their three remaining fixtures with the Pro12 'wooden spoon' looking set to swap hands from one Italian side to the other this season.
Verdict: 15 Points - Twelfth Place
Thursday 24 March 2016
No quick fix for Rugby's image problems
World Rugby’s intervention in Joe Marler’s recent disciplinary hearings is part of clear new trend in international rugby. The Harlequins Loose-Head was not disciplined during England’s clash against Wales for his ‘‘gypsy boy’’ comment directed at Wales Tight-Head Samson Lee. Neither referee Craig Joubert nor TMO Ben Skeen deemed the incident a punishable offence. Despite this the 6 Nations committee deliberated on the incident for four days following the match before delivering their verdict, no hearing, no ban, simply a verbal warning.
World Rugby quickly responded, “World Rugby is of the view that the comments amount to misconduct and/or a breach of the code of conduct under Regulation 20 and should have been considered by an independent process...”, the statement continued to read, “In the absence of such a process by Six Nations Rugby, World Rugby is exercising its right to take appropriate action before an independent judicial committee.”
World Rugby’s response, as they argue, is in light of a failure on the part of the 6 Nations committee to hold the player to an independent hearing. Their concerns are valid and a hearing is warranted, but this case is not necessarily World Rugby taking a stand against abuse, it is World Rugby taking note of the public’s opinion. The question remains as to whether there would have been any repercussions for Marler had his comments not been picked up by the referee's microphone.
Over the last number of years World Rugby has adopted a clear focus for the professional and particularly international game. This approach has been intent on widening the sports fan base through creating a faster and more exciting game. World Rugby is keen to make the spectators central to this process.
At Rugby World Cup 2015 players were warned that diving would be a sin-bin offence for the duration of the tournament. John Jeffrey, Chairman of the World Rugby match officials selection committee, also highlighted appealing to the referee as an example of the undesirable behaviour World Rugby sought to eliminate from the sport’s showpiece event. The logic was simple, present rugby as well as possible while the world watches, when they turn their backs again the rules too can slacken.
The issue of Marler’s disciplinary proceedings is another example of World Rugby dealing with an issue that threatens to damage the sports wider image rather than seeking to fix the sport itself. If World Rugby is serious about dealing with verbal abuse within the sport than Marler should be banned and a precedent should be set and kept at all levels of the game.
The RBS 6 Nations also brought further problems with World Rugby’s intense committed to the image of the sport. As part of a wider censorship initiative Sam Warburton’s concussion against England wasn’t shown in Television replays.
The solution isn’t not showing these injuries, or reprimanding one player or punishing certain acts more harshly when the viewership increases. Rugby has an image problem and it cannot be ignored, but the focus should return to fixing the problems and not simply how the public will react to World Rugby’s acts. The 6 Nations committee excusing of Marler's words due to the incident taking place ''...in the heat of the moment...'' is a ridiculous excuse which could be applied to almost any incident that occurs in the sport. The answer to verbal abuse isn't playing to the public, the answer to concussion isn't blocking it from the public and the answer to appealing or diving isn't heightening the punishment when spectators increase. World Rugby needs to take note and fix the problems properly, not just wherever the public spikes up.
Monday 16 November 2015
Do the Provinces have a serious depth crisis?
The World Cup final on the 31st of October passed with remarkably little buzz across Ireland in the fallout from the Quarter-Final defeat to a more than deserving Argentinian side. Expectations had never been higher from an Irish perspective, the pre-World Cup brief period Ireland enjoyed ranked second in the world only serving to heighten. Expectation had spiralled out of control well before this and why wouldn't it? Ireland had earned consecutive 6 Nations Championships under the mighty Schmidt. Sure we nearly beat the All Blacks in 2013. The draw was highly in our favour, we had to make at least the semi-finals. That was the wide held belief anyway.
Ireland's somewhat muted exit from the World Cup was attributed to key players being injured or suspended by the pundits, fans, management and even players. There was a real sense that we were unlucky and that with those key personal we would have marched on to a clash with Cheik's revolutionised Australian side. The loss of talismen O'Connell and Sexton as well as the brutish O'Mahony, abrasive O'Brien and crucial structural safety of Payne proving too much for Ireland.
Before this there was a real sense that Ireland had real depth. 2007's failings were firmly behind us, no longer did this Irish team rely on an XV, we had 31 players, maybe even more, with real World beating quality. The World Cup reminded us harshly of just how false this belief was. Madigan was exposed, despite his impressive display against France, as being significantly inferior to Sexton. Earls demonstrated that the age old question of where to play him will seemingly never be answered. He isn't an Outside-Centre despite the brief two month period leading up to and through the World Cup where the majority of us believed Schmidt couldn't get selection wrong. He was constantly nailed seconds after receiving passes and rarely looked capable of getting near the gainline. Watch Payne throughout his time in an Irish shirt. He carries well, makes yards, doesn't shy away from contact, rarely gets turned over and above all gives Ireland go-forward ball in the wide channels. Earls wasn't capable of replicating this. Henry and Murphy too showed the remarkably difference between themselves and O'Brien and O'Mahony. The performance of the back-row against Argentina is comparable to a whimper when you look at the aggression, commitment and abrasion Ireland's first choice 6 and 7 bring to the table. Perhaps the injury which was felt the least was the one suspected of bringing the most damage. O'Connell's absence was softened in the knowledge that Henderson was emerging as one of Ireland's most vital players and that Toner was by now an established starter in the Irish team. The loss of O'Connell was not felt by a lack of depth in personal, but in a lack of depth of leadership. With Ireland's backs to the wall Heaslip did not embody any sense of fight or will, Sunday's loss to Wasps highlighting this further. While Ireland lsot arguably their five most vital players, would this happen to other countries? Take Carter, Retallick, McCaw, Nonu and Savea out of New Zealand's team for example. In step Barrett, Thrush, Cane, Sonny Bil Williams and Naholo. That is depth, Ireland don't have that.
The problem is not in selection. It is in depth. The root cause of this issue is the lack of players that the provinces are producing. Ulster, save for Herring, have not produced any International quality front-rows in years. Munster too, aside from Kilcoyne and Cronin, have provided very little at a national level in this area. Connacht have demonstrated that they are beginning to push players froward for national selection. Nathan White and perhaps Denis Buckley are in the mix for squad places now. This is dwarfed by the sudden reliance Ireland have had to have on Leinster for Front-Row players. There is McGrath, Healy, Strauss, Cronin, Bent, Moore and Furlong. All of which are regulars in the Irish squad at this stage.
If you look at out-half the provinces have been incredibly ineffective and arguably grossly neglecgent at producing Irish talent. Sexton's move to Racing 92 prompted a key moment for Leinster, Ireland and Ian Madigan. Leinster immediately made moves to gain IRFU approval to sign a replacement out-half. This is where the first mistake was made. The second was clearly O'Connor's continued selection of Gopperth over Madigan in key games at ten. Madigan either reduced to the bench or wearing 12 or 15. Clearly Madigan was someone who Ireland were looking at to compete with Sexton at international level for the jersey. The IRFU allowing Leinster to sign a player to replace Sexton that in turn marginalised and stunted the development of Madigan was beyond ridiculous. The failure to give Madigan two seasons as Leinster's number one out-half has to be a massive regret and is representative of a failing on the part of all. At Ulster the opposite is true as Paddy Jackson has been given every opportunity to flourish and reach the massive potential many saw in him at a young age. Since the Heineken Cup Quarter-Final in 2012 he has been Ulsters out-half as Humphreys was usurped in the aftermath of announcing he was leaving to club for London Irish. While Jackson has not reached the levels expected of him he has been given every chance to do so, a lesson Leinster could learn from. In this position Munster deserve rich criticism in how they have approached the inevitable post-O'Gara slump. Keatley, O'Gara's understudy, was promoted to first choice following his retirement and patience was given to him in bounds. Penney in particular understood that creating a rivalry between him and the exciting talent of JJ Hanrahan was vital to enhancing the performances of both men. Penney switched it up and gave both their chances before Foley changed the grand strategy once and for all. Keatley's place was set in stone with Hanrahan getting his chances off the bench or like Madigan at 12 and 15. Hanrahan felt he was not being given enough opportunity and move abroad in search of more. Hanrahan is one of the most exciting talents to come out of the Munster academy in a long time. He has the potential to be world class and it is a catastaphoe that he was allowed to leave Munster. There is a real sense that Keatley has reach his best. Hanrahan's performances were not far off Keatley, but he should have been given the starting shirt as an investment for the future.
The issue of Centre is perhaps one of the most well documented and is being compounded by the IRFU allowing the provinces to sign foreign talent in this area. There is Ben Te'o at Leinster, Bundee Aki at Connacht(although he is a Project Player) and Francis Saili at Munster. Munster have little option at 13 either picking Saili or Earls for the most part. Leinster have more options in McFadden and Fitzgerald among others, but again Te'o gets the nod in the majority of vital games. The Centre issues are due to poor policy by the IRFU and not the provinces. Aside from D'Arcy and O'Driscoll the Centre has been an issue for Irish rugby for years. Munster have arguably never been able to produce fully in the Centre and have been leaning on a host of foreign talent...Halstead, Mafi, Tipoki, Tuitupou, Bleyendaal and Saili show this well. Signing foreign talent won't help the province in the long-term or indeed Ireland at all.
The issue of Scrum-Half has been plugged by the sudden and quick rise of Conor Murray in 2011, but beyond Murray Ireland are in a very weak position. Boss is hanging on at the threads with retirement imminent, Reddan too, while still making a positive contribution in attack, continues to defend very weakly and box-kick much less effectively than Murray. Reddan is 35 this week, he should not be selected for Ireland again as the future has to be looked at. Kieron Marmion at Connacht and Luke McGrath at Leinster bring pace to the game and are both highly talented individuals. They should be given every chance with Ireland as soon as possible. Tomas O'Leary could provide a temporary buffer for Ireland on the replacements bench.
The Second-Row, Back-Row and Wing/Full-Back seem to the only areas where the majority of the provinces are producing indigenous talent capable of playing at international level at this moment in time. The rest of the team is largely made up of key players. Ireland do not have the depth to have genuine competition for places in these position and have allowed the provinces, despite their seemingly strict measures on the use of NIEs(Non-Irish Qualified players), to continually erode the process of bringing forward Irish talent. Where there is a perceived gap it is plugged with foreign talent, where there is an abundance of Irish talent a blockage occurs. There is little movement of Irish players from province to province and why isn't there? Madigan moving to Munster makes logical sense at this point in time, as it did for Conway. He will more than likely become first choice and make Munster and Ireland stronger in the process. Jack McGrath to Ulster is another that gained momentum last year. Ulster require a quality loose-head and McGrath need constant game-time. While himself and Healy enjoy effectively a job-share scenario it is evident that Ireland would benefit more if McGrath or indeed Healy were to switch provinces. Sean Cronin or Richardt Strauss is another example before you even consider Leinster's options in the Back-Row. The talent needs to spread out, players need to take their careers into their own hands. Andrew Conway is one of the few to bravely switch allegiances. More players doing so would be to their individual benefit and Ireland's benefit. Hanrahan is one of the few to put himself first in the modern era, more players need to follow suit if their provinces continue to not give talent its chance.
Ireland's somewhat muted exit from the World Cup was attributed to key players being injured or suspended by the pundits, fans, management and even players. There was a real sense that we were unlucky and that with those key personal we would have marched on to a clash with Cheik's revolutionised Australian side. The loss of talismen O'Connell and Sexton as well as the brutish O'Mahony, abrasive O'Brien and crucial structural safety of Payne proving too much for Ireland.
Before this there was a real sense that Ireland had real depth. 2007's failings were firmly behind us, no longer did this Irish team rely on an XV, we had 31 players, maybe even more, with real World beating quality. The World Cup reminded us harshly of just how false this belief was. Madigan was exposed, despite his impressive display against France, as being significantly inferior to Sexton. Earls demonstrated that the age old question of where to play him will seemingly never be answered. He isn't an Outside-Centre despite the brief two month period leading up to and through the World Cup where the majority of us believed Schmidt couldn't get selection wrong. He was constantly nailed seconds after receiving passes and rarely looked capable of getting near the gainline. Watch Payne throughout his time in an Irish shirt. He carries well, makes yards, doesn't shy away from contact, rarely gets turned over and above all gives Ireland go-forward ball in the wide channels. Earls wasn't capable of replicating this. Henry and Murphy too showed the remarkably difference between themselves and O'Brien and O'Mahony. The performance of the back-row against Argentina is comparable to a whimper when you look at the aggression, commitment and abrasion Ireland's first choice 6 and 7 bring to the table. Perhaps the injury which was felt the least was the one suspected of bringing the most damage. O'Connell's absence was softened in the knowledge that Henderson was emerging as one of Ireland's most vital players and that Toner was by now an established starter in the Irish team. The loss of O'Connell was not felt by a lack of depth in personal, but in a lack of depth of leadership. With Ireland's backs to the wall Heaslip did not embody any sense of fight or will, Sunday's loss to Wasps highlighting this further. While Ireland lsot arguably their five most vital players, would this happen to other countries? Take Carter, Retallick, McCaw, Nonu and Savea out of New Zealand's team for example. In step Barrett, Thrush, Cane, Sonny Bil Williams and Naholo. That is depth, Ireland don't have that.
The problem is not in selection. It is in depth. The root cause of this issue is the lack of players that the provinces are producing. Ulster, save for Herring, have not produced any International quality front-rows in years. Munster too, aside from Kilcoyne and Cronin, have provided very little at a national level in this area. Connacht have demonstrated that they are beginning to push players froward for national selection. Nathan White and perhaps Denis Buckley are in the mix for squad places now. This is dwarfed by the sudden reliance Ireland have had to have on Leinster for Front-Row players. There is McGrath, Healy, Strauss, Cronin, Bent, Moore and Furlong. All of which are regulars in the Irish squad at this stage.
If you look at out-half the provinces have been incredibly ineffective and arguably grossly neglecgent at producing Irish talent. Sexton's move to Racing 92 prompted a key moment for Leinster, Ireland and Ian Madigan. Leinster immediately made moves to gain IRFU approval to sign a replacement out-half. This is where the first mistake was made. The second was clearly O'Connor's continued selection of Gopperth over Madigan in key games at ten. Madigan either reduced to the bench or wearing 12 or 15. Clearly Madigan was someone who Ireland were looking at to compete with Sexton at international level for the jersey. The IRFU allowing Leinster to sign a player to replace Sexton that in turn marginalised and stunted the development of Madigan was beyond ridiculous. The failure to give Madigan two seasons as Leinster's number one out-half has to be a massive regret and is representative of a failing on the part of all. At Ulster the opposite is true as Paddy Jackson has been given every opportunity to flourish and reach the massive potential many saw in him at a young age. Since the Heineken Cup Quarter-Final in 2012 he has been Ulsters out-half as Humphreys was usurped in the aftermath of announcing he was leaving to club for London Irish. While Jackson has not reached the levels expected of him he has been given every chance to do so, a lesson Leinster could learn from. In this position Munster deserve rich criticism in how they have approached the inevitable post-O'Gara slump. Keatley, O'Gara's understudy, was promoted to first choice following his retirement and patience was given to him in bounds. Penney in particular understood that creating a rivalry between him and the exciting talent of JJ Hanrahan was vital to enhancing the performances of both men. Penney switched it up and gave both their chances before Foley changed the grand strategy once and for all. Keatley's place was set in stone with Hanrahan getting his chances off the bench or like Madigan at 12 and 15. Hanrahan felt he was not being given enough opportunity and move abroad in search of more. Hanrahan is one of the most exciting talents to come out of the Munster academy in a long time. He has the potential to be world class and it is a catastaphoe that he was allowed to leave Munster. There is a real sense that Keatley has reach his best. Hanrahan's performances were not far off Keatley, but he should have been given the starting shirt as an investment for the future.
The issue of Centre is perhaps one of the most well documented and is being compounded by the IRFU allowing the provinces to sign foreign talent in this area. There is Ben Te'o at Leinster, Bundee Aki at Connacht(although he is a Project Player) and Francis Saili at Munster. Munster have little option at 13 either picking Saili or Earls for the most part. Leinster have more options in McFadden and Fitzgerald among others, but again Te'o gets the nod in the majority of vital games. The Centre issues are due to poor policy by the IRFU and not the provinces. Aside from D'Arcy and O'Driscoll the Centre has been an issue for Irish rugby for years. Munster have arguably never been able to produce fully in the Centre and have been leaning on a host of foreign talent...Halstead, Mafi, Tipoki, Tuitupou, Bleyendaal and Saili show this well. Signing foreign talent won't help the province in the long-term or indeed Ireland at all.
The issue of Scrum-Half has been plugged by the sudden and quick rise of Conor Murray in 2011, but beyond Murray Ireland are in a very weak position. Boss is hanging on at the threads with retirement imminent, Reddan too, while still making a positive contribution in attack, continues to defend very weakly and box-kick much less effectively than Murray. Reddan is 35 this week, he should not be selected for Ireland again as the future has to be looked at. Kieron Marmion at Connacht and Luke McGrath at Leinster bring pace to the game and are both highly talented individuals. They should be given every chance with Ireland as soon as possible. Tomas O'Leary could provide a temporary buffer for Ireland on the replacements bench.
The Second-Row, Back-Row and Wing/Full-Back seem to the only areas where the majority of the provinces are producing indigenous talent capable of playing at international level at this moment in time. The rest of the team is largely made up of key players. Ireland do not have the depth to have genuine competition for places in these position and have allowed the provinces, despite their seemingly strict measures on the use of NIEs(Non-Irish Qualified players), to continually erode the process of bringing forward Irish talent. Where there is a perceived gap it is plugged with foreign talent, where there is an abundance of Irish talent a blockage occurs. There is little movement of Irish players from province to province and why isn't there? Madigan moving to Munster makes logical sense at this point in time, as it did for Conway. He will more than likely become first choice and make Munster and Ireland stronger in the process. Jack McGrath to Ulster is another that gained momentum last year. Ulster require a quality loose-head and McGrath need constant game-time. While himself and Healy enjoy effectively a job-share scenario it is evident that Ireland would benefit more if McGrath or indeed Healy were to switch provinces. Sean Cronin or Richardt Strauss is another example before you even consider Leinster's options in the Back-Row. The talent needs to spread out, players need to take their careers into their own hands. Andrew Conway is one of the few to bravely switch allegiances. More players doing so would be to their individual benefit and Ireland's benefit. Hanrahan is one of the few to put himself first in the modern era, more players need to follow suit if their provinces continue to not give talent its chance.
Wednesday 29 July 2015
Ireland's potential World Cup squad
Before the World Cup Ireland face Wales away from home on August 8th, Scotland at home on the 15th of August, Wales at home of the 29th of August before finishing off with a fixture against England at Twickenham on the 5th of September. These games will dictate the choices that Schmidt will ultimately make for his World Cup squad, but for now a little speculation couldn't hurt. Here's a look at who we think will make the final 31 for Ireland's World Cup squad.
Front-Row
Irish Rugby now boasts perhaps its richest set of front-row forwards ever, in terms of depth and quality. Long gone are the days where Tom Court came off the bench for a measly five minutes to replace either Horan or Hayes, which one didn't really matter. Now, Ireland have players who can make a potent impact off the bench at 1, 2 and 3.
At Loose-Head Healy, McGrath, Kilcoyne, Buckley and Bent are all currently in camp. Serious issues have been raised over the incumbent's, Healy, fitness as he recovers from neck surgery in May. McGrath started four out of Ireland's five tests during this years six nations and is a very good option at 1. Healy and McGrath both being fit will be key to Ireland's chances, but Healy is vital to Ireland in the set-piece, defence and attack - he needs to be fit for Ireland to fulfill their potential. Ireland's depth here is typified by the fact that Munster's James Cronin doesn't even get a look in.
At Hooker Ireland really have three serious options in Cronin, Strauss and Best with Rob Herring providing solid back up. Cronin has taken every opportunity given to him since Strauss' injury and health troubles in 2013 and 2014 and is now Leinster's firm first choice as well as Ireland's second choice. 'Nugget's' pace, ball-handling and carrying are superb and will pose a serious challenge to Rory Best, whose consistent(Expect 2013) Line-out throwing, Scrummaging, tackling and breakdown work make him akin to an additional flanker on the field. Strauss offers a mould of the abilities of Best and Cronin, a strong ball-carrier and scrummager with perhaps the most reliable line-out throw of the three, however he still remains a distant third in the pecking order. Best's leadership qualities push him ahead of Cronin, but the former Munster academy player will be a vital asset off the bench when defences start to tire.
Tight-Head is the one position in the front-row where Ireland have little strength and depth. Mike Ross proved his worth during this years 6 Nations following his infamous dropping at the hands of O'Connor in January's Champions Cup fixtures and will head into the World Cup warm-ups as Ireland's first choice. The emergence of Martin Moore in the past couple of years has been most welcome with the Lansdowne Prop settling into international rugby pretty effectively. Moore needs more experience in the green jersey to settle into his true international potential and this needs to happen sooner or later as Ross will eventually have to retire as did the seemingly perpetually effective Hayes. Pray that Ross has another 3 months left in him at the very least. Tadhg Furlong completes a trio of Leinstermen covering Tight-Head in Ireland's squad. Undoubtedly an exciting talent, Furlong has demonstrated his ability firmly since breaking onto the scene at the RDS. He will be around for a long time and will earn a lot of Ireland caps with definite potential to be a Lion. However, while talented he is still developing as a player and but barring injury this World Cup will come too soon for him. Watch this space, Furlong will be one of Ireland's leading players in four years time.
Ireland will likely take 8 Front-rowers; three Loose-Heads, three Hookers and two Tight-Heads.
Prediction: Healy(If fit - Buckley if not), Kilcoyne, McGrath, Best, Cronin, Strauss, Ross, Moore.
Second-Row
At Lock Ireland look to really have good options for the number four shirt. The debate over who starts at five is non-existent, as it should be. The question remains who should start beside Toulon's latest galactico and as does who should replace them after 55-65 minutes. Devin Toner has improved dramatically over the past few seasons and now can count himself among the best line-out operators in the world game. His scrummaging and ball-carrying, which both long held him back, have come on massively and he looks the obvious choice at four.
It won't be easy for Toner as Donnacha Ryan's return from a lengthy toe injury sees him brought into a Schmidt Ireland squad for the first time. Ryan is a world class player on top form and will add a lot to any team his is involved with, particularly in the short exchanges. It is hard to say where exactly the hard-nosed Lock is in terms of form, but our bet is he is up to scratch.
The hype over Iain Henderson is unavoidable, the giant Lock-cum-blindside flanker appears on first instance like a slightly dazed scruffy teenager with the body of a weightlifter, but the Ulsterman is a seriously seriously talented individual. He will make the World Cup squad firstly on merit and secondly due to his versatility. He is another who will be a key player for Ireland in 2019 and will push Toner close for a starting place.
Dan Tuohy is the firm outsider of the five to make the squad; Toner and O'Connell are the incumbents and Henderson and Ryan can cover two positions, so what does the former Exeter Chief bring? He is a different player to the other four, he is dynamic, he is quick and he has fantastic hands. Injury has blighted his emergence onto the international scene thus far, but a strong run of games will see Tuohy demonstrate his ability. He is rated by few, but make no mistake, he is a gifted player and deserves more of a chance in a green jersey. A good player, however there are four others that are too good to give him his chance barring injuries.
Ireland will only have room for four Locks.
Prediction: O'Connell, Toner, Henderson, Ryan.
Back-Row
Ever since Ireland overcame the final hurdle in 2009 Grand Slam's victory at the Millenium stadium Heaslip has been ever present in the Ireland team. He is Ireland's No.8, end of. The former DUFC captain brings leadership, professionalism and above all consistency. He rarely hits the headlines these days, but similar to O'Connell he is a vital cog in the powerful forward machine that Plumtree and now Easterby have been cultivating.
Sean O'Brien brings what he brings and always brings it. He will be a marked man, but when has that ever stopped him being effective? He has to start, no question.
Peter O'Mahony is another who you simply cannot leave out. The Munster captain's dogged, determined, unforgiving and endless grit is something Ireland have come to lean on. When the pressure is on this is your go to guy. Undroppable.
The rest of the flankers read well and demonstrate the scale of the headache Schmidt will face when selecting his back-row and their replacement. Jordi Murphy has gone from strength to strength over the last few seasons and this has seen him play across the Back-row for province and country, his versatility will stand to him when the cuts begin. Chris Henry is back from his health issues and its as if he never stopped playing. The flanker has shown consistently at Ravenhill since his return, showing that his form during the 2014 6 Nations was not just a purple patch in his career. He will travel to England and the fact that he doesn't look likely to start or maybe even not make the bench shows the quality of his rivals for a place in the team.
Jack Conan continues his whirlwind rise to the top in the absence of Emerging Ireland captain Rhys Ruddock through injury. Similar to Furlong he is a great talent, but not quite ready yet, unless injuries allow. It is a big shame for Ruddock who was really demonstrating his talent this year and was looking to be a certainty for the World Cup squad.
Ireland will likely take five Back-rows:
Prediction: Heaslip, O'Brien, O'Mahony, Henry, Murphy.
Scrum-Half
Once you move out to the back-line the cracks start to emerge in Ireland's armour more and half-back is where cover is at its thinnest. Conor Murray is Ireland's starting nine, end of. Since 2011 the Munsterman has improved from game-to-game with ease and is now amongst the world's best in his position. No one can box-kick better than this guy, no scrum-half adds as much physicality as him and he poses a serious threat close to the line. If the worst happens and he does get injured(touch wood) Ireland will be in trouble.
Eoin Reddan is frail at best defensively, has a limited box-kick, but crucially has the best pass of Ireland's options at nine. His limitations elsewhere mean that he isn't up to scratch, but he will likely make the squad as first back-up due to his experience and the speed he can add to a game in the final twenty, which will be key in the tighter games.
Isaac Boss is similarly not the whole package, his kicking is solid, as is his defence and passing, but solid won't quite cut it and the New-Zealand born Leinsterman will most likely be settling for the Leinster nine shirt during the World Cup.
Kieran Marmion is young and it is difficult to fully know if he is ready for the pressure of a World Cup yet. Unlike Furlong and Conan there is not sufficient cover to use the classic experience over youth safe call. Schmidt needs to blood this guy properly and give him every chance to prove his worth. The pool games against Romania and Canada are ideal opportunities for this. Reddan and Boss are solid operators, but the time is ripe to look beyond this tournament and give Marmion his chance. He will be a key player for Ireland at some point, better to make it sooner rather than later.
Ireland will take three Scrum-Halves:
Prediction: Murray, Marmion, Reddan.
Out-Half
Sexton plus two others. The pivot is vital to Ireland's chances and an injury to him will spell the likely end of Ireland's chances leading into the tournament. Saying that he is crucial to Ireland is an understatement, he is the biggest part of the 'Big Six' that Ireland need to be fit at the World Cup along with Healy, O'Connell, Heaslip, Kearney and Murray.
Madigan will travel, as will Paddy Jackson in the absence of Keatley. Madigan due to his versatility and Jackson due to his impressive form at the tail-end of last season. It could be argued that Pienaar was making his life easy at Ulster while Keatley struggled without Murray at Munster and that is ultimately why he made the squad. However, in all reality, Jackson has the greater scope for improvement out of the two pivots both now and in the future and fully deserves his inclusion of Keatley. While Madigan has not been given his full chance to prove himself at both club and international level in the ten shirt, Jackson has been given ample time at club level and does show signs of promise, his seemingly perpetual youth will only mask inconsistencies for so long, he needs to show his stuff now or never. Pray Sexton stays fit and pray that when he is being rested/replaced that whichever of the two that gets on can do a solid job.
Ireland will need three pivots at the World Cup with Madigan being used as cover at 12 and 15.
Prediction: Sexton, Madigan, Jackson.
Centre
This is the places on Ireland's team sheet which is most difficult to call, it depends entirely on what Ireland choose to do with their attack. Stay with the direct, solid and effective partnership of Henshaw and Payne, a combination which was clearly operating on a Master-apprentice style relationship during this season. Payne took on the majority of the ball, carrying well for such a small player by test rugby standards and eased Henshaw into test rugby. Henshaw looks comfortable at 12 and he should stay there, his ball-carrying and size suit inside centre - this is a position he can make his own. 13 is the position where Ireland have options and Payne has done no wrong, in fact he was one of Ireland's better players in this years 6 Nations Championship, however he lacks the cutting edge that Ireland need to ignite their back-line.
Darren Cave too doesn't quite have that spark and lacks the physicality to really make an impact at test level.
Gordon D'Arcy is yet again being forced to prove himself, despite his impressive track record. He won't do enough to start and will be hard pushed to make the squad at all with numbers tight. As much as he deserves a final send-off sadly he most likely won't get it, at least not from first choice centre.
Reid is involved, but he doesn't have enough game time under his belt since injury in 2014, no doubt an impressive talent, his time will come after this tournament.
McFadden, Earls and Fitzgerald are Ireland's other options at Centre while also being able to cover Wing. Fitzgerald looks like he is back to his best and this could be his chance at Outside Centre, maybe not where he is best suited, but perhaps where Ireland need him. McFadden will be hard pushed to make the squad, a good player but, not a game-breaker. Earls is a threat and a genuine one at that. His pace is dangerous and only rivaled by Zebo in the Ireland squad, he should travel and a starting place will be all based on how his erratic form shapes up. He might be considered a centre at Munster and possibly even by Schmidt, but the Limerick man definitely seems best suited to the wing.
Ireland will take three/four centres.
Prediction: Henshaw, Payne, Fitzgerald. D'Arcy will be the fourth if there is one in place of an outside back.
Wing/Full-Back
Already discussed were Earls, Fitzgerald and McFadden; versatility will see one of these players definitely make the plane and our bet is on Fitzgerald. The other spots at Wing are hugely competitive with the aforementioned three being joined by Gilroy, Trimble, Bowe, Zebo and David Kearney. Trimble and Kearney have 2014 as a good reference point as injury has stood in the way since then. Zebo and Bowe have 2015 as an equally solid season, the former less so. Gilroy is the bolter here but remains a strong candidate, three places is not enough for the talent Ireland possess here, don't be surprised if Ireland travel with just one specialist Full-Back to make room to an additional Wing. Zebo has made it clear in the press that he can cover 11, 14 and 15, David Kearney too can cover the back. Felix Jones looks like he will travel after his most impressive season to date, seeing him the preferred back sub throughout the 6 Nations. However, is a second full-back necessary when Henshaw, Payne and Madigan can all do a solid job at the back if needed? If Jones travels don't expect D'Arcy to as Ireland will probably be looking to Madigan as a replacement at 12. The Munster Full-Back has been given a shot at Wing for Ireland off the bench and also for Munster during the 6 Nations period, possibly on Schmidt's request. Rob Kearney is one of the few who can count himself as pencilled in already.
Ireland have space for four/five Wingers/Full-Backs, not including the crossover that Fitzgerald provides.
Prediction: Rob Kearney, Bowe, Trimble, Jones, Gilroy.
Starting XV:
15: R. Kearney
14: Bowe
13: Fitzgerald
12: Henshaw
11: Trimble
10: Sexton
9: Murray
1: Healy(If not - McGrath)
2: Best
3: Ross
4: Toner
5: O'Connell
6: O'Mahony
7: O'Brien
8: Heaslip
16: Cronin
17: McGrath(If starting -Kilcoyne)
18: Moore
19: Henderson
20: Henry
21: Marmion
22: Madigan
23: Jones
24: Strauss
25: Kilcoyne(Buckley - If Healy isn't fit)
26: Ryan
27: Murphy
28: Reddan
29: Jackson
30: Payne
31: Gilroy
Front-Row
Irish Rugby now boasts perhaps its richest set of front-row forwards ever, in terms of depth and quality. Long gone are the days where Tom Court came off the bench for a measly five minutes to replace either Horan or Hayes, which one didn't really matter. Now, Ireland have players who can make a potent impact off the bench at 1, 2 and 3.
At Loose-Head Healy, McGrath, Kilcoyne, Buckley and Bent are all currently in camp. Serious issues have been raised over the incumbent's, Healy, fitness as he recovers from neck surgery in May. McGrath started four out of Ireland's five tests during this years six nations and is a very good option at 1. Healy and McGrath both being fit will be key to Ireland's chances, but Healy is vital to Ireland in the set-piece, defence and attack - he needs to be fit for Ireland to fulfill their potential. Ireland's depth here is typified by the fact that Munster's James Cronin doesn't even get a look in.
At Hooker Ireland really have three serious options in Cronin, Strauss and Best with Rob Herring providing solid back up. Cronin has taken every opportunity given to him since Strauss' injury and health troubles in 2013 and 2014 and is now Leinster's firm first choice as well as Ireland's second choice. 'Nugget's' pace, ball-handling and carrying are superb and will pose a serious challenge to Rory Best, whose consistent(Expect 2013) Line-out throwing, Scrummaging, tackling and breakdown work make him akin to an additional flanker on the field. Strauss offers a mould of the abilities of Best and Cronin, a strong ball-carrier and scrummager with perhaps the most reliable line-out throw of the three, however he still remains a distant third in the pecking order. Best's leadership qualities push him ahead of Cronin, but the former Munster academy player will be a vital asset off the bench when defences start to tire.
Tight-Head is the one position in the front-row where Ireland have little strength and depth. Mike Ross proved his worth during this years 6 Nations following his infamous dropping at the hands of O'Connor in January's Champions Cup fixtures and will head into the World Cup warm-ups as Ireland's first choice. The emergence of Martin Moore in the past couple of years has been most welcome with the Lansdowne Prop settling into international rugby pretty effectively. Moore needs more experience in the green jersey to settle into his true international potential and this needs to happen sooner or later as Ross will eventually have to retire as did the seemingly perpetually effective Hayes. Pray that Ross has another 3 months left in him at the very least. Tadhg Furlong completes a trio of Leinstermen covering Tight-Head in Ireland's squad. Undoubtedly an exciting talent, Furlong has demonstrated his ability firmly since breaking onto the scene at the RDS. He will be around for a long time and will earn a lot of Ireland caps with definite potential to be a Lion. However, while talented he is still developing as a player and but barring injury this World Cup will come too soon for him. Watch this space, Furlong will be one of Ireland's leading players in four years time.
Ireland will likely take 8 Front-rowers; three Loose-Heads, three Hookers and two Tight-Heads.
Prediction: Healy(If fit - Buckley if not), Kilcoyne, McGrath, Best, Cronin, Strauss, Ross, Moore.
Second-Row
At Lock Ireland look to really have good options for the number four shirt. The debate over who starts at five is non-existent, as it should be. The question remains who should start beside Toulon's latest galactico and as does who should replace them after 55-65 minutes. Devin Toner has improved dramatically over the past few seasons and now can count himself among the best line-out operators in the world game. His scrummaging and ball-carrying, which both long held him back, have come on massively and he looks the obvious choice at four.
It won't be easy for Toner as Donnacha Ryan's return from a lengthy toe injury sees him brought into a Schmidt Ireland squad for the first time. Ryan is a world class player on top form and will add a lot to any team his is involved with, particularly in the short exchanges. It is hard to say where exactly the hard-nosed Lock is in terms of form, but our bet is he is up to scratch.
The hype over Iain Henderson is unavoidable, the giant Lock-cum-blindside flanker appears on first instance like a slightly dazed scruffy teenager with the body of a weightlifter, but the Ulsterman is a seriously seriously talented individual. He will make the World Cup squad firstly on merit and secondly due to his versatility. He is another who will be a key player for Ireland in 2019 and will push Toner close for a starting place.
Dan Tuohy is the firm outsider of the five to make the squad; Toner and O'Connell are the incumbents and Henderson and Ryan can cover two positions, so what does the former Exeter Chief bring? He is a different player to the other four, he is dynamic, he is quick and he has fantastic hands. Injury has blighted his emergence onto the international scene thus far, but a strong run of games will see Tuohy demonstrate his ability. He is rated by few, but make no mistake, he is a gifted player and deserves more of a chance in a green jersey. A good player, however there are four others that are too good to give him his chance barring injuries.
Ireland will only have room for four Locks.
Prediction: O'Connell, Toner, Henderson, Ryan.
Back-Row
Ever since Ireland overcame the final hurdle in 2009 Grand Slam's victory at the Millenium stadium Heaslip has been ever present in the Ireland team. He is Ireland's No.8, end of. The former DUFC captain brings leadership, professionalism and above all consistency. He rarely hits the headlines these days, but similar to O'Connell he is a vital cog in the powerful forward machine that Plumtree and now Easterby have been cultivating.
Sean O'Brien brings what he brings and always brings it. He will be a marked man, but when has that ever stopped him being effective? He has to start, no question.
Peter O'Mahony is another who you simply cannot leave out. The Munster captain's dogged, determined, unforgiving and endless grit is something Ireland have come to lean on. When the pressure is on this is your go to guy. Undroppable.
The rest of the flankers read well and demonstrate the scale of the headache Schmidt will face when selecting his back-row and their replacement. Jordi Murphy has gone from strength to strength over the last few seasons and this has seen him play across the Back-row for province and country, his versatility will stand to him when the cuts begin. Chris Henry is back from his health issues and its as if he never stopped playing. The flanker has shown consistently at Ravenhill since his return, showing that his form during the 2014 6 Nations was not just a purple patch in his career. He will travel to England and the fact that he doesn't look likely to start or maybe even not make the bench shows the quality of his rivals for a place in the team.
Jack Conan continues his whirlwind rise to the top in the absence of Emerging Ireland captain Rhys Ruddock through injury. Similar to Furlong he is a great talent, but not quite ready yet, unless injuries allow. It is a big shame for Ruddock who was really demonstrating his talent this year and was looking to be a certainty for the World Cup squad.
Ireland will likely take five Back-rows:
Prediction: Heaslip, O'Brien, O'Mahony, Henry, Murphy.
Scrum-Half
Once you move out to the back-line the cracks start to emerge in Ireland's armour more and half-back is where cover is at its thinnest. Conor Murray is Ireland's starting nine, end of. Since 2011 the Munsterman has improved from game-to-game with ease and is now amongst the world's best in his position. No one can box-kick better than this guy, no scrum-half adds as much physicality as him and he poses a serious threat close to the line. If the worst happens and he does get injured(touch wood) Ireland will be in trouble.
Eoin Reddan is frail at best defensively, has a limited box-kick, but crucially has the best pass of Ireland's options at nine. His limitations elsewhere mean that he isn't up to scratch, but he will likely make the squad as first back-up due to his experience and the speed he can add to a game in the final twenty, which will be key in the tighter games.
Isaac Boss is similarly not the whole package, his kicking is solid, as is his defence and passing, but solid won't quite cut it and the New-Zealand born Leinsterman will most likely be settling for the Leinster nine shirt during the World Cup.
Kieran Marmion is young and it is difficult to fully know if he is ready for the pressure of a World Cup yet. Unlike Furlong and Conan there is not sufficient cover to use the classic experience over youth safe call. Schmidt needs to blood this guy properly and give him every chance to prove his worth. The pool games against Romania and Canada are ideal opportunities for this. Reddan and Boss are solid operators, but the time is ripe to look beyond this tournament and give Marmion his chance. He will be a key player for Ireland at some point, better to make it sooner rather than later.
Ireland will take three Scrum-Halves:
Prediction: Murray, Marmion, Reddan.
Out-Half
Sexton plus two others. The pivot is vital to Ireland's chances and an injury to him will spell the likely end of Ireland's chances leading into the tournament. Saying that he is crucial to Ireland is an understatement, he is the biggest part of the 'Big Six' that Ireland need to be fit at the World Cup along with Healy, O'Connell, Heaslip, Kearney and Murray.
Madigan will travel, as will Paddy Jackson in the absence of Keatley. Madigan due to his versatility and Jackson due to his impressive form at the tail-end of last season. It could be argued that Pienaar was making his life easy at Ulster while Keatley struggled without Murray at Munster and that is ultimately why he made the squad. However, in all reality, Jackson has the greater scope for improvement out of the two pivots both now and in the future and fully deserves his inclusion of Keatley. While Madigan has not been given his full chance to prove himself at both club and international level in the ten shirt, Jackson has been given ample time at club level and does show signs of promise, his seemingly perpetual youth will only mask inconsistencies for so long, he needs to show his stuff now or never. Pray Sexton stays fit and pray that when he is being rested/replaced that whichever of the two that gets on can do a solid job.
Ireland will need three pivots at the World Cup with Madigan being used as cover at 12 and 15.
Prediction: Sexton, Madigan, Jackson.
Centre
This is the places on Ireland's team sheet which is most difficult to call, it depends entirely on what Ireland choose to do with their attack. Stay with the direct, solid and effective partnership of Henshaw and Payne, a combination which was clearly operating on a Master-apprentice style relationship during this season. Payne took on the majority of the ball, carrying well for such a small player by test rugby standards and eased Henshaw into test rugby. Henshaw looks comfortable at 12 and he should stay there, his ball-carrying and size suit inside centre - this is a position he can make his own. 13 is the position where Ireland have options and Payne has done no wrong, in fact he was one of Ireland's better players in this years 6 Nations Championship, however he lacks the cutting edge that Ireland need to ignite their back-line.
Darren Cave too doesn't quite have that spark and lacks the physicality to really make an impact at test level.
Gordon D'Arcy is yet again being forced to prove himself, despite his impressive track record. He won't do enough to start and will be hard pushed to make the squad at all with numbers tight. As much as he deserves a final send-off sadly he most likely won't get it, at least not from first choice centre.
Reid is involved, but he doesn't have enough game time under his belt since injury in 2014, no doubt an impressive talent, his time will come after this tournament.
McFadden, Earls and Fitzgerald are Ireland's other options at Centre while also being able to cover Wing. Fitzgerald looks like he is back to his best and this could be his chance at Outside Centre, maybe not where he is best suited, but perhaps where Ireland need him. McFadden will be hard pushed to make the squad, a good player but, not a game-breaker. Earls is a threat and a genuine one at that. His pace is dangerous and only rivaled by Zebo in the Ireland squad, he should travel and a starting place will be all based on how his erratic form shapes up. He might be considered a centre at Munster and possibly even by Schmidt, but the Limerick man definitely seems best suited to the wing.
Ireland will take three/four centres.
Prediction: Henshaw, Payne, Fitzgerald. D'Arcy will be the fourth if there is one in place of an outside back.
Wing/Full-Back
Already discussed were Earls, Fitzgerald and McFadden; versatility will see one of these players definitely make the plane and our bet is on Fitzgerald. The other spots at Wing are hugely competitive with the aforementioned three being joined by Gilroy, Trimble, Bowe, Zebo and David Kearney. Trimble and Kearney have 2014 as a good reference point as injury has stood in the way since then. Zebo and Bowe have 2015 as an equally solid season, the former less so. Gilroy is the bolter here but remains a strong candidate, three places is not enough for the talent Ireland possess here, don't be surprised if Ireland travel with just one specialist Full-Back to make room to an additional Wing. Zebo has made it clear in the press that he can cover 11, 14 and 15, David Kearney too can cover the back. Felix Jones looks like he will travel after his most impressive season to date, seeing him the preferred back sub throughout the 6 Nations. However, is a second full-back necessary when Henshaw, Payne and Madigan can all do a solid job at the back if needed? If Jones travels don't expect D'Arcy to as Ireland will probably be looking to Madigan as a replacement at 12. The Munster Full-Back has been given a shot at Wing for Ireland off the bench and also for Munster during the 6 Nations period, possibly on Schmidt's request. Rob Kearney is one of the few who can count himself as pencilled in already.
Ireland have space for four/five Wingers/Full-Backs, not including the crossover that Fitzgerald provides.
Prediction: Rob Kearney, Bowe, Trimble, Jones, Gilroy.
Starting XV:
15: R. Kearney
14: Bowe
13: Fitzgerald
12: Henshaw
11: Trimble
10: Sexton
9: Murray
1: Healy(If not - McGrath)
2: Best
3: Ross
4: Toner
5: O'Connell
6: O'Mahony
7: O'Brien
8: Heaslip
16: Cronin
17: McGrath(If starting -Kilcoyne)
18: Moore
19: Henderson
20: Henry
21: Marmion
22: Madigan
23: Jones
24: Strauss
25: Kilcoyne(Buckley - If Healy isn't fit)
26: Ryan
27: Murphy
28: Reddan
29: Jackson
30: Payne
31: Gilroy
Friday 24 July 2015
ARU aggression disgraces the sport
This year has seen Australian Rugby adopt a new and well documented selection policy whereby those who have committed sufficiently to Australian Rugby in the past can play abroad and remain available for international selection.
The 60 cap minimum added to the seven years of contract commitment to the ARU means that only 'elite' internationals can qualify under this. Players such as Giteau, Adam
Ashley-Cooper and Drew Mitchell warrant this ruling and it is far from damaging to Australian Rugby, rather enhancing.
However, the other side of this ruling has reared its ugly face with the ARU adopting an aggressive and sometimes disrespectful approach to securing potential Wallabies playing abroad who do not qualify for selection.
The Kane Douglas example is important to examine to understand what exactly the ARU have been up to. The player signed a three-year contract with Leinster Rugby and is leaving to return to Australia just one season into this deal.
Michael Cheika made no secret of that fact that the ARU wanted him back, even calling him up and stating that he wanted him to return to Australia in press conferences. The pressure he and the ARU put on the situation was reminiscent of a last minute Premier league transfer window deal.
Leinster eventually agreed to release the player for a fee rumoured to be in the region of €160,000. While Douglas reached underwhelming form at best during his tenure at the RDS he remained a quality player in an important position for them, especially in Devin Toner's absence during the Rugby World Cup.
The Quade Cooper scandal which rages on is another example of this change in the ARU's actions. The facts are that Cooper signed a contract with Toulon, shook Boudjellal's hand and posed for a photograph - he committed to being a Toulon player.
Now, Cooper has signed a four-year deal with the ARU which includes spending 2016 on the 7's circuit and potentially a the Olympic games.
Boudjellal has made his opinion clear in the media as he vehemently condemned Cooper's actions while also threatening to sue the fly-half and the ARU for lost revenue. Boudjellal included the sale of merchandise in this which has the potential to be far past the reach of a release fee if one was included in his contract with Toulon.
He said, ''They are speaking to a player who they know has signed. So there is collusion there and I might sue the Australian federation to ensure our rights are respected....If Cooper doesn't come, the compensation will be in millions of euros.''*
This prompted the ARU's General Manager, Rod Clarke to come out and state that the ARU will not be paying any compensation to Toulon and that this responsibility lies with Cooper. The rumours have provided $200,000(Australian Dollars) as the compensation figure included in his contract.
More than likely Boudjellal is using scare tactics to get Cooper to follow his contractual obligations and sign for Toulon, however Cooper's actions are deplorable and for once it seems that Toulon have done no wrong and have been treated very poorly themselves.
In both cases, Douglas and Cooper, the ARU has clearly had a big role to play while firmly retaining that if they dangle the carrot and a contracted player goes for it then they have done nothing wrong in the situation. Rugby has long been a sport where transfer fees are rare and players move clubs when they have finished their contracts. That is something to be proud of, specifically when you compare the meaningless contracts in professional Football. The ARU have annoyed Toulon, Leinster and the IRFU in just the last month - their actions have been unacceptable. However, it is undeniable that it will make teams think twice before signing Australian internationals again and that ladies and gentlemen must be the goal of this aggressive and ignorant approach to things that the ARU has adopted. Their tactics are ridiculous, disgraceful and shouldn't be part of the sport for any club, let alone one of the largest nations. World Rugby needs to intervene in some aspects of these events. The Douglas situation was dealt with in a way which ultimately suited both parties, however poor the way this came about. The Cooper saga is another issue altogether.
*Source: Planet Rugby
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